Saturday, November 21, 2009

1296...NDP Soaring In Polls; Tory Party Fading

Mike Barber Canwest News Service says that the "New Democratic Party has vaulted to levels of voter approval not seen since before the last federal election..." To the point the Dippers are up six of them, putting them at 19 per cent in an Ipsos Reid poll sponsored by Global TV and Canwest News Service .

Good news is the Tories are down three points to thirty seven which takes them out of majority territory.

I do believe that we have seen this movie before, no? You know I seem to recollect that the NDP often gets bumped up in the polls when an election is not imminent and then when the election comes around their support erodes.

They are within five points of the Liberals, who are at 24 per cent, but, again, the question is, will Jack Layton be able to hold his support. Ditto Elizabeth May and the Greens who are hovering around ten.

WFDS

4 comments:

  1. "Good news is the Tories are down three points to thirty seven which takes them out of majority territory."

    Wrong! True they may be down three points. But you are forgetting vote splitting! With the Libs at 24% and the NDP at 19% Remember when the libs won majority gov't in the 90's with 38% that's because the vote on the right was split by the two right-wing parties. Just keep that in mind.

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  2. Dream on loser, as soon as an election is threatened the Conservatives surge ahead, the Liberals are destined to become "da turd Pardi", a legacy left by Chretien and Martin.

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  3. You're clearly misreading the results. NDP gains have exceeded the poll's margin of error of 3.1%. Conservative losses have not.

    So while the poll seems to indicate that they've fallen out of the territory which is considered theoretical majority government territory -- the disbursal of votes is clearly a factor; the Conservatives could win every vote in Western Canada and not win government -- to suggest that they've "faded" is a poor choice of words.

    It's true that their support may erode in an election. But if the Liberals keep nailing their own feet to the floor, it very well may not.

    There's only so much bumbling Canadians are prepared to forgive.

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  4. The Tories can afford to lose some support to the NDP a lot more than the Liberals can.

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